Hi, David Anderson
ok, sorry about that.
I haven't used the Updraft plugin and you didn't mention wp-cron in your question and it sounded very similar to my w3tc object cache + transient problem ;-)
cheers
ps: any way I found this
http://wordpress.org/support/topic/bug-in-apc-object-cache-wp_cache_set-making-it-fail
that might be related to the problem I'm seeing and/or related to yours?